PC and Phone Shipments Fell About 20%. Did Anyone Actually Spend Less?
Fewer PCs and phones were shipped in Q3 2026 than in any third quarter in years. But smartphone revenue still rose 3%, because the average phone cost 27% more. Here is what the data says about spending, and why PCs are different.
Source: Counterpoint Research, 3 November 2026. Average price is based on wholesale prices.
In October, the headlines were stark. Worldwide PC shipments fell more than 20% in the third quarter of 2026. Smartphone shipments fell by about the same amount, the weakest third quarter in more than a decade.
A 20% drop in shipments sounds like a 20% drop in the market. But shipments count devices, not money. When prices rise at the same time, fewer devices can still add up to the same spending, or even more.
So did buyers actually spend less? The data gives two different answers: for smartphones, no; for PCs, probably yes.
The headline: about one in five fewer devices
Every major research firm reported a steep fall in Q3 2026 (July to September). The exact totals differ because each firm counts slightly differently, but the size of the drop is consistent:
| Research firm | Device | Q3 2026 shipments | Change vs Q3 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gartner | PCs | 55.4 million | −22.4% |
| Omdia | PCs | 58.1 million | −21.2% |
| IDC | PCs | 62.7 million | −20.1% |
| IDC | Smartphones | 255.3 million | −22.0% |
| Counterpoint | Smartphones | not stated | −19% |
Sources: Gartner, 12 October 2026; IDC and Omdia PC figures via The Register, 9 October 2026; IDC smartphones via FoneArena; Counterpoint, 3 November 2026.
IDC called the smartphone result “the largest YoY decline recorded in any quarter” in its data. Gartner said PC shipments had fallen to levels last seen in early 2023.
The cause is the same in every report: memory. As AI data centers absorb the world’s supply of memory chips, the cost of RAM and storage inside every PC and phone has multiplied. Gartner noted that DRAM costs rose five times year over year in the second quarter, and that “PC vendors passed those higher component costs on to customers.”
Smartphones: fewer phones, more money
Counterpoint Research published the other half of the picture on 3 November: what those phones were worth.
Average price is based on wholesale prices. Source: Counterpoint Research, 3 November 2026.
The arithmetic works like this: 19% fewer phones (0.81) at a 27% higher average price (1.27) gives 1.03, or 3% more revenue. The drop in volume was more than covered by the rise in price.
Two things pushed the average price up. Phone makers passed higher memory costs into their prices, and the mix of phones sold shifted toward premium models, because cheaper phones were hit hardest.
That shift shows clearly when you split revenue by brand:
Apple’s results confirm the pattern from a second, independent source. In its quarterly filing, Apple reported iPhone revenue of $57.6 billion for the quarter ending 26 September 2026, up 17.5% from $49.0 billion a year earlier (Apple, SEC filing). Counterpoint says Apple’s shipments were nearly flat, so almost all of that growth came from a higher price per phone.
For the brands most focused on lower-priced phones, the story was different. Counterpoint notes that OPPO and vivo chose to focus on margins and on their key models, and reduced their activity in some markets. That meant fewer low-cost phones on offer, which is part of why the market’s average price rose.
Higher revenue is not the same as higher profit. As Counterpoint’s Shilpi Jain points out, higher average prices “don’t necessarily mean higher profitability,” because memory costs are squeezing phone makers’ margins at the same time.
PCs: the drop was too big for prices to cover
For PCs, no research firm has yet published a worldwide revenue figure for Q3 2026. But we can test the question with a simple calculation.
If shipments fall 22.4%, the remaining 77.6% of PCs must cost 28.9% more on average for total spending to stay the same (1 ÷ 0.776 = 1.289). Using IDC’s smaller drop of 20.1%, the break-even price rise is 25.2%.
So the question becomes: did average PC prices rise by 25–29%? The best available evidence says they did not:
| Price evidence | Rise in average PC price | Source |
|---|---|---|
| US PCs, Q2 2026 (actual) | +12.0% (to over $1,000 for the first time) | Omdia, 9 September 2026 |
| Worldwide PCs, full year 2026 (forecast) | +17% | IDC, 2 June 2026 |
| Needed to keep Q3 spending flat | +25% to +29% | NodeZero calculation from IDC and Gartner shipment data |
NodeZero estimate: spending change = (1 + shipment change) × (1 + price change) − 1. Shipment changes from Gartner (−22.4%) and IDC (−20.1%); price changes from Omdia (+12%, US, Q2) and IDC (+17%, worldwide forecast). Not a reported figure.
Every combination points the same way: worldwide PC spending most likely fell, by roughly 7% to 13%. That is a much smaller fall than the 20–22% drop in shipments, but it is still a fall. We will update this estimate when research firms publish Q3 revenue figures.
The US data from earlier in the year shows how quickly the balance can tip. In Q2 2026, US PC shipments rose just 1.0%, but average prices rose 12.0%, so US PC revenue rose 13.1% (Omdia). Omdia says much of that quarter’s demand was “borrowed volume from 2027”, as retailers stocked up ahead of price rises. One quarter later, shipments fell by a fifth, and price rises were no longer enough to hold spending up.
One company’s view: the Mac
Apple’s filing gives a rare look at units and revenue for the same PC business in the same quarter. Mac revenue rose from $8.73 billion to $10.79 billion (+23.7%), while Gartner estimates Mac shipments fell 7.1%. Together, that implies revenue per Mac rose about 33%.
Revenue per Mac is implied by combining Apple's reported revenue with Gartner's shipment estimate. Using IDC's estimate (−11%) instead gives about +39%. Source: Apple SEC filing (revenue); Gartner, 12 October 2026 (shipments).
Apple is not typical of the whole PC market. It sells mostly premium machines, and it gained 1.7 percentage points of market share in the quarter. But it shows the same mechanism at work: when prices rise faster than units fall, revenue grows, even as fewer devices ship.
Who is buying less: the low end
Across every report, the same group was squeezed hardest: buyers of cheaper devices.
- In the US, shipments of PCs under $699 fell 6.5% in Q2, while PCs over $1,500 rose 36.8% (Omdia).
- Gartner said “the reduction in the availability of lower-cost devices made replacement purchases less affordable for consumers,” while businesses focused spending on specific needs such as workstations and AI PCs.
- Counterpoint described the phone market as entering “a more selective phase,” with premium phones holding up and mass-market phones under pressure.
Gartner’s vendor table shows the same split. Every major PC maker shipped fewer units, but the size of the drop tracked how much each one sells in price-sensitive segments:
| PC maker | Q3 2026 shipments | Q3 2025 shipments | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lenovo | 14.99 million | 19.33 million | −22.4% |
| HP Inc. | 10.37 million | 15.01 million | −30.9% |
| Dell | 7.58 million | 10.17 million | −25.4% |
| Apple | 5.84 million | 6.28 million | −7.1% |
| ASUS | 4.68 million | 5.37 million | −13.0% |
| Acer | 3.87 million | 4.35 million | −11.2% |
| Others | 8.03 million | 9.04 million | −25.6% |
| Total | 55.35 million | 71.30 million | −22.4% |
Source: Gartner, 12 October 2026. Preliminary estimates.
Gartner links HP’s larger decline to its “relatively high exposure to price-sensitive consumer and mainstream commercial segments,” not to anything specific to the company. These are shipment figures only; they say nothing about each company’s revenue or profit.
What this means for you
If you lead a sales team, this is the 1 TB Test at the scale of a whole industry. The smartphone market sold 19% fewer phones and still reported 3% revenue growth. A team selling memory-heavy products may see its revenue hold up while its customer count and unit volume fall. Track units and revenue side by side, so a price-driven quarter is not mistaken for growth, or a volume-driven quarter for decline.
If you buy technology for a business, the same budget now buys fewer devices. With US average PC prices above $1,000 and forecast to keep rising into 2027, a refresh planned on 2025 prices will either cost more or replace fewer machines.
If you are buying for yourself, the cheapest devices are where prices have risen fastest relative to what you get, and where choice has shrunk most. Gartner expects PC lifetimes to increase by 15% for business buyers and 20% for consumers by the end of 2026 as a result (Gartner, 26 February 2026).
What comes next
The forecasts suggest the gap between units and revenue will be tested further:
- Phones: Counterpoint expects Q4 2026 shipment declines to outpace price growth, pushing smartphone revenue into decline, even though full-year 2026 revenue should still be higher than 2025.
- PCs: Omdia forecasts worldwide PC shipments to fall another 24% in Q4 2026 and 7% in 2027 (The Register). In the US, Omdia expects PC revenue to fall 6.0% in 2027, as higher prices stop offsetting lower volumes.
- Memory: IDC does not expect “any relief to the memory shortage situation before the end of 2027” (IDC), and IDC’s Nabila Popal warned that the smartphone market’s “worst is yet to come.”
For more on why memory prices rose so sharply, see Why RAM, SSD and Server Prices Exploded in 2025–2026.
Key terms
- Shipments: the number of devices sent from manufacturers into stores and distributors. Not the same as sales to end customers.
- Average selling price (ASP): total revenue divided by units shipped. It rises when prices go up and when buyers shift to more expensive models.
- Revenue: shipments multiplied by average selling price.
- Break-even price rise: how much the average price must rise to keep revenue flat when units fall. For a 22.4% fall in units, it is 1 ÷ (1 − 0.224) − 1 = 28.9%.
Notes on the data
- Q3 2026 figures from Gartner, IDC, Omdia and Counterpoint are preliminary and may be revised.
- Research firms define and count devices differently, so their totals differ. Percentage changes are more comparable than unit totals.
- Counterpoint’s average smartphone price is based on wholesale prices. Its shipment decline (−19%) is smaller than IDC’s (−22.0%).
- The PC spending estimate combines worldwide shipment data with price data that is either US-only (Omdia, Q2) or a full-year forecast (IDC). It is an estimate of direction and rough size, not a measurement.
- Apple’s fiscal quarter ended 26 September 2026, which closely matches the calendar third quarter used by the research firms.
Sources
Shipments: Gartner – Worldwide PC shipments, 3Q26 (12 Oct 2026) · The Register – IDC and Omdia PC shipments (9 Oct 2026) · FoneArena – IDC smartphone shipments, Q3 2026
Revenue and prices: Counterpoint – Global smartphone revenue rises 3% (3 Nov 2026) · Apple – Q4 FY2026 results, SEC filing · Omdia – US PC market, 2Q26 (9 Sep 2026) · IDC – PC market and the memory shortage (2 Jun 2026)